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Builders Are Running Out Of Land - Really!?


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#1 Triassic

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Posted 18 April 2016 - 11:40 AM

BUSINESS INSIDER

Britain's house price surge will get worse because builders are running out of land
Lianna Brinded
http://uk.businessin...earch-note-b...

Britain's house prices are going to soar because there's too little housing and too much demand.

While building more affordable houses is the most fundamental way to tackle the imbalance between supply and demand, Daniel Porter and his team at UBS highlighted an important factor that directly prevents more properties being created — housebuilders are running out of land to build on. ...

#2 ProDave

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Posted 18 April 2016 - 12:49 PM

I wish demand would rise and prices would soar up here.

#3 ferdinand

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Posted 18 April 2016 - 01:13 PM

Para 1:

Quote

Britain's house price surge will get worse because builders are running out of land
Britain's house prices are going to soar because there's too little housing and too much demand.

If you add "in London, Outer London, and East Anglia slightly" he may have a point.

Ferdinand

#4 Triassic

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Posted 18 April 2016 - 01:56 PM

View PostProDave, on 18 April 2016 - 12:49 PM, said:

I wish demand would rise and prices would soar up here.
it's the same here in the NW, the only property that is selling well are first time buyer type property, £80 to £130k, everything else just sits there up for sale for months, even years.

On the ten months our house has been for sale we've had twelve viewers, two stupid offers and one failed purchase attempt ( their buyer pulled out at the eleventh hour due to cold feet over a structural survey).

Edited by Triassic, 18 April 2016 - 01:57 PM.


#5 joiner

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Posted 18 April 2016 - 04:15 PM

Don't worry, the government will help the situation, after all having to build a city the size of Newcastle each year that we have open borders and unrestricted immigration has to be managed somehow, so...

Green belt threatened by homes decision

'Campaigners have warned that a ruling from Communities Secretary Greg Clarke could see tens of thousands of new homes built on green belt land. In giving the go-ahead for 1,500 new homes to be built on land near Gloucester, Mr Clarke ruled that green belt land could be built on where there is a significant local need for housing – a reversal of the position previously taken by ministers. Mr Clarke admitted in his ruling that the plans would be “harmful” to the green belt and lead to the “loss of the essential characteristic of openness,” but concluded that there would be a “substantial benefit” from new homes. The Campaign to Protect Rural England (CPRE) believes the decision could set a precedent and increase pressure on local authorities to approve green belt developments. Paul Miner, planning campaign manager at CPRE, commented: “It is telling developers that green belt protections can be overridden,” adding that “this is a route likely to be taken by local authorities that are already hard-pressed by aggressive developers and struggling to meet unrealistic housing targets." He also warned that towns and cities across the country “can expect to see their green belts under increased risk of being eroded away by unnecessary development.” The CPRE has identified a number of sites where developers are pressing for thousands of homes to be built, saying that Mr Clarke’s statement could be cited by those seeking to gain approval of housing projects on the highlighted plots.'

Edited by joiner, 18 April 2016 - 04:16 PM.


#6 SteamyTea

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Posted 18 April 2016 - 04:31 PM

Plenty of room down here for everyone. The middle of Cornwall is ugly, ex industrial land, often polluted and few people bother to look at it.
If we crammed the whole of the UK population into Cornwall, then it would have a density of about 3 times of London, but still less than Monaco.

#7 mafaldina

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Posted 19 April 2016 - 08:16 AM

They appear to be doing their best to build on any scrap of land down your way Steamy: Heartlands, Tuckingmill and at last they have even started on the old Avers site at last, who are these people who are anticipated to move there (apart from the Birmingham City Council rehouse lot)?

One could add HX1 (now passed as greater number of houses) and HX2 in Helston; the developments either side of Truro and all those around Newquay!

Best
Mafalda

#8 SteamyTea

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Posted 19 April 2016 - 08:33 AM

Camborne School of Mines is being demolished for housing as I type this.

Thing about moving to this end of the country is that it relies on cheap transport. Be interesting what happens when fuel goes from 10p/kWh to 15p/kWh, or back to where is was a while ago. That is going to limit the employment choice for a lot of people.
Since I have lived here they have built a few hundred new houses, can't say that I have noticed. There has not been an increase in traffic jams, crime is pretty much the same, employment seems to be about the same.
I really fail to see why people are scared of new developments. Take away the snobbery, false fears, bigotry and xenophobia from the population and things will be a lot easier for everyone.

#9 ProDave

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Posted 19 April 2016 - 08:44 AM

View PostSteamyTea, on 19 April 2016 - 08:33 AM, said:

Since I have lived here they have built a few hundred new houses, can't say that I have noticed. There has not been an increase in traffic jams, crime is pretty much the same, employment seems to be about the same.
I really fail to see why people are scared of new developments. Take away the snobbery, false fears, bigotry and xenophobia from the population and things will be a lot easier for everyone.
In a sparsely populated area like Cornwall and the Highlands, there is nothing wrong with development. There's a slow and steady increase in the number of houses here and the area can cope.

But I used to live in Oxfordshire where I was born. By the time I reached 40 I had had enough. All the towns are expanding, with some quite large new estates, BUT there are no new roads joining the town together, no new railways, no new public transporrt. One example. I used to live 7 miles from my work. when I started there, it was a straight through 10 minute run. But due to Didcot in particular expanding a lot of new traffic was starting to use the rural unclasified roads. So to "solve" the congestion on one village, they put in 2 sets of traffic lights where the minor roads joined the main road. Result, a 15 minute slow crawl to get through that village, more than doubling my journey time.

Then I changed jobs, I lived south of Oxford and now worked North of Oxford. Trust me commuting up and down the A34 past Oxford every day is just ridiculous. It got to the point the only way I could tollerate it was on a motorbike in all weather, the only thing that forced me back into the car was ice on the road.

I was glad to escape the mayhem of an over populated over crowded part of the country. We go back occasionally to visit friends, and it only takes a couple of days before I want to escape again. On the last visit, we "chose" to travel at the wrong time and at 3PM (school kicking out time) it took half an hour to travel less than a mile to get from one side of Abingdon to the other. There is no way I could ever go back to living somewhere like that, but it's getting worse as yet more houses are built and more people are trying to use the same roads.

Edited by ProDave, 19 April 2016 - 08:47 AM.


#10 mafaldina

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Posted 19 April 2016 - 09:18 AM

The relative sparsity of population in Cornwall makes it an obvious choice on the one hand. It's distance from 'civilisation' (aka major conurbations) on the other makes it less so, at least vis a vis economic (jobs/travel costs) considerations.

I have no objections to this development (not nimbying), as Steamy says the traffic can still cope, although around Truro and Falmouth/Penryn there is now a noticeable rush hour. My 8 mile journey in and out of Falmouth takes 20 minutes out of rush hour and often over an hour during it if I get the timing wrong.

I am just puzzled as to who all these extra people are who are relocating here.

Some will be retirees (that brings its own problems - healthcare etc.) but who are the others, what is the employment? The only major increase in employment I can figure out is the care industry to look after the retirees, but they cannot afford to buy the new houses on those wages.

Best
M

#11 SteamyTea

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Posted 19 April 2016 - 01:09 PM

I think the growth industry down here is tourist. In the few years I have lived here the season has got longer, and some places are now all year.
On the back of this has been an increase in catering, only got to see the way that Cornish Oven, Philps (the best pasties, Rowes and the other one has expanded. Then there is the education sector, especially HE. It is a totally different beast than it was just 5 years ago.
The marine industry is still large, though is low key and 'tucked out the way'.
On the back of these there are many small companies that survive nicely (cleaning, laundry, maintenance, event planners, kids entertainment, paddle boarding, surfing...).

It is often thought that tourism and hospitality is not a real industry, it may not be a vital industry, but it is as real as making cars, digging minerals, farming fields...

For a laugh, I thought I would look at the age demographics for Cornwall.
I don't think that the higher number of wealthy pensioners is really a problem, it is more a case of low fertility rate/younger people leaving the county.
But the main thing is that the replacement rate up to retirement age is greater.
If you take my age bracket (55-59, 7%) it is less than 1% different from the 15-19 year group (the future workers).

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#12 Roger440

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Posted 19 April 2016 - 08:38 PM

View PostSteamyTea, on 19 April 2016 - 01:09 PM, said:

I think the growth industry down here is tourist. In the few years I have lived here the season has got longer, and some places are now all year.
On the back of this has been an increase in catering, only got to see the way that Cornish Oven, Philps (the best pasties, Rowes and the other one has expanded. Then there is the education sector, especially HE. It is a totally different beast than it was just 5 years ago.
The marine industry is still large, though is low key and 'tucked out the way'.
On the back of these there are many small companies that survive nicely (cleaning, laundry, maintenance, event planners, kids entertainment, paddle boarding, surfing...).

It is often thought that tourism and hospitality is not a real industry, it may not be a vital industry, but it is as real as making cars, digging minerals, farming fields...

For a laugh, I thought I would look at the age demographics for Cornwall.
I don't think that the higher number of wealthy pensioners is really a problem, it is more a case of low fertility rate/younger people leaving the county.
But the main thing is that the replacement rate up to retirement age is greater.
If you take my age bracket (55-59, 7%) it is less than 1% different from the 15-19 year group (the future workers).

Do you spend ALL of your time looking at charts???? :)

Interesting though.

Fell in love with a house near Culmleigh. Soooo tempting...................................

#13 SteamyTea

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Posted 19 April 2016 - 08:41 PM

Not really. It is so easy to find decent data these days, and even easier to chart it. Seems a waste of effort to debate these things when you can just look at the facts.
My mind also works in images rather than numbers and text.

Edited by joiner, 21 April 2016 - 05:21 AM.


#14 jsharris

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Posted 20 April 2016 - 06:44 PM

View PostSteamyTea, on 19 April 2016 - 01:09 PM, said:

I think the growth industry down here is tourist. In the few years I have lived here the season has got longer, and some places are now all year.
On the back of this has been an increase in catering, only got to see the way that Cornish Oven, Philps (the best pasties, Rowes and the other one has expanded. Then there is the education sector, especially HE. It is a totally different beast than it was just 5 years ago.
The marine industry is still large, though is low key and 'tucked out the way'.
On the back of these there are many small companies that survive nicely (cleaning, laundry, maintenance, event planners, kids entertainment, paddle boarding, surfing...).

It is often thought that tourism and hospitality is not a real industry, it may not be a vital industry, but it is as real as making cars, digging minerals, farming fields...

For a laugh, I thought I would look at the age demographics for Cornwall.
I don't think that the higher number of wealthy pensioners is really a problem, it is more a case of low fertility rate/younger people leaving the county.
But the main thing is that the replacement rate up to retirement age is greater.
If you take my age bracket (55-59, 7%) it is less than 1% different from the 15-19 year group (the future workers).

Young people moving out are balanced pretty much by older retirees and second home owners moving down. I only moved out because my job went and there was no prospect of work for me there. Not exactly a booming demand for scientists in Cornwall. At the time I left I knew of one other post at my level in the whole county, and that was miles away, up in North Cornwall somewhere.

Interesting contrast with where we live now, where there are more retired scientists around that you can count, practically. I gave a lecture a year or so ago at the University of the Third Age, and was very surprised to see how many of my former colleagues were in the audience.

#15 SteamyTea

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Posted 20 April 2016 - 08:41 PM

Part of it is the rise in population after WW2. Us 'baby boomers' (a global issue) have really skewed the distribution (socio-economic), but we are now starting to die out (we have lower life expectancy than our parents), going to take 30 years to get things back into balance.
So people borne in the last decade are going to be spoilt for choice when they get into their mid 30's.

#16 jsharris

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Posted 20 April 2016 - 08:55 PM

Interestingly topical, as yesterday I received the results of some genetic screening done over two years ago. I'd been holding off being told the results, out of fear, but bit the bullet, made an appointment to see the counsellor and then to see the doctor. I was pretty shocked to find that, according to my genetic makeup, I had a 32% chance of contracting a particularly nasty fatal disease between the ages of 20 and 60. I didn't contract it and have been reassured that it's very unlikely that I'll get it now. Several cousins have it, (or have had it and died), so I knew I'd been at risk, but hadn't realised the actual risk.

It's a very sobering thought being told that you've been "lucky" and not contracted a disease despite having over 80 genetic markers for it (out of a total of around 100 so far found). I think I should go an buy a lottery ticket. Right now I'm feeling incredibly fortunate. Comments have already been made that this explains why I have done so many things others would have considered foolhardy, though....................

Edited by jsharris, 20 April 2016 - 09:07 PM.
typo - meant to write "thought".......


#17 SteamyTea

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Posted 20 April 2016 - 08:59 PM

Did you have cats when you were young. You could have Toxoplasmosis, that makes us take larger risks.

My Mother always got cats, probably why I am a risk taker.

Oh, and as long as you drink and smoke less than your Doctor, you will be fine.

Edited by joiner, 21 April 2016 - 05:23 AM.


#18 jsharris

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Posted 20 April 2016 - 09:12 PM

Never had cats, but I did have a blood test taken at a Cave Research Association conference years ago (Manchester Uni, as I recall) which showed that I had antibodies to leptospirosis. I honestly can't recall having the disease, but do remember having what I thought was a dose of 'flu following a weekend trip down Goatchurch cave in the Mendips, and it transpired later that Goatchurch had a reputation for leptospirosis amongst cavers, as a lot of the water running into it was farm run off from the Mendip plateau, with a fairly high probability of there being rat urine in it.

#19 cjard

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Posted 21 April 2016 - 05:14 AM

View PostSteamyTea, on 19 April 2016 - 01:09 PM, said:

15-19 year group (the future workers).

They must be different down there; I wouldnt dare describe the local members of that age group thus

Unless of course your autocorrect converted shir to wor

Edited by joiner, 21 April 2016 - 05:25 AM.
"of" added to 'members of that'


#20 SteamyTea

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Posted 21 April 2016 - 05:24 AM

"The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for
authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place
of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their
households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They
contradict their parents, chatter before company, gobble up dainties
at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannize their teachers."
Plato